Water AlliesTier 2
at 台中 Regional
decks
4
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
11-16-1
overall winrate
41.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1303
· range 1179–1401
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1203
Q3 1401
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.5% | -8.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
